Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Varsho doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored, Bichette to third.7–1
- 8Clement doubled to left, Kirk scored, Clement out stretching at third.6–1
- 5Guerrero Jr. homered to right center (374 feet).5–1
- 2Stanton homered to left center (418 feet).4–1
- 2Bichette hit sacrifice fly to center, Springer scored, Barger to third.4–0
- 1Lukes singled to right, Bichette scored and Varsho scored, Kirk to second.3–0
- 1Bichette doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML TOR +105 / NYY -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +42 Elo | NYY 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3036–35 | Road vs home | 41–2812th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 8th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15472nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–62 | 66–74 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 35–40 | 54–66 |
| Underdog | 42–22 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 84–56 | 70–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 19–17 NYY in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 36.