Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-3
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Varsho singled to left, Lukes scored, Barger to second.0–6
- 8Springer scored on error, Barger safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Sánchez, Lukes safe at second on error.0–5
- 4Schneider hit sacrifice fly to left, Varsho scored.0–4
- 2Schneider homered to left (360 feet).0–3
- 1Barger doubled to center, Lukes scored.0–2
- 1Lukes doubled to left, Springer scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML HOU +140 / TOR -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -149
- HOU +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +11 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +62 Elo | TOR 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 5th of 3036–35 | Road vs home | 46–253rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 14th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–74 | 80–65 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–58 | 35–42 |
| Underdog | 40–16 | 44–23 |
| Overs–unders | 68–78 | 84–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 12–7 TOR in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 19.