Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Carlos CorreaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- AJ BlubaughPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Heineman reached on infield single to first, Straw scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.3–4
- 9Kiner-Falefa singled to left, Clement scored and Heineman scored, Kiner-Falefa to second, Schneider to second, Schneider safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Dubón.3–3
- 6Springer homered to center (450 feet).3–1
- 6Diaz doubled to left, Altuve scored, Meyers to third.3–0
- 1Correa homered to center (417 feet), Peña scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML HOU +125 / TOR -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -135
- HOU +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.9 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +1 | HOU: Luis Garcia: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +25 Elo | TOR 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3035–34 | Road vs home | 45–242nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 15th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–74 | 80–63 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–58 | 35–40 |
| Underdog | 38–16 | 44–23 |
| Overs–unders | 68–76 | 84–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 11–6 TOR in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.