Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Bellinger doubled to center, Judge scored.3–4
- 3Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Springer scored, Schneider to third.3–3
- 2Lukes hit sacrifice fly to right, Clement scored.2–3
- 2Kiner-Falefa singled to left, Kirk scored, Clement to third.1–3
- 1Rice homered to right center (380 feet), Judge scored and Bellinger scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML TOR +155 / NYY -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -166
- TOR +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.2 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +5 | TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +38 Elo | NYY 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3037–36 | Road vs home | 42–2912th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 6th of 301527 | Elo rating | 15453rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–63 | 67–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–40 | 55–67 |
| Underdog | 43–23 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 84–58 | 70–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 20–18 NYY in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 38.