Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jason AlexanderPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Andres GimenezBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Diaz homered to left center (385 feet).3–2
- 8Lukes singled to right, Straw scored, Giménez to third.2–2
- 8Giménez singled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored, Straw to third.2–1
- 6Correa homered to left (393 feet).2–0
- 2Diaz doubled to right, Sánchez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 59%
- ML HOU +135 / TOR -160
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -145
- HOU +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −12 | HOU: Jason Alexander: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +21 Elo | TOR 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 6th of 3035–35 | Road vs home | 46–242nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–74 | 80–64 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–58 | 35–41 |
| Underdog | 39–16 | 44–23 |
| Overs–unders | 68–77 | 84–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 11–7 TOR in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 18.