Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoendrys GomezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Naylor homered to right center (375 feet).2–3
- 5Meidroth homered to left (371 feet).2–2
- 4Naylor doubled to center, Ramírez scored and Kwan scored.1–2
- 4Vargas doubled to center, Sosa scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML CHW +135 / CLE -160
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 60.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -145
- CHW +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −10 | CHW: Yoendrys Gomez: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +74 Elo | CLE 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 28th of 3025–49 | Road vs home | 40–3417th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 29th of 301440 | Elo rating | 150217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–62 | 75–73 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 26–42 |
| Underdog | 85–56 | 49–31 |
| Overs–unders | 74–75 | 68–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 15–23 CLE in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 38.