Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jonathan BowlanPitching2.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Garcia doubled to left, Loftin scored.4–3
- 7Loftin singled to left, Tolbert scored on error, Loftin to second, Loftin safe at third on throwing error by catcher Naylor.3–3
- 4Naylor singled to right, Martínez scored, Rocchio to third.2–3
- 3Pasquantino singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.2–2
- 1Manzardo homered to right (436 feet), Valera scored.1–2
- 1India reached on infield single to second, Garcia scored, Pasquantino to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 50%
- ML KC -110 / CLE -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -100
- KC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −4 | KC: Jonathan Bowlan: team allows 1.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +36 Elo | CLE 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 14th of 3033–37 | Road vs home | 37–3318th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Elo rating | 149918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–76 | 73–71 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–43 | 24–40 |
| Underdog | 45–33 | 49–31 |
| Overs–unders | 62–83 | 68–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 18–19 CLE in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 37.