Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Ryan BergertPitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Daniel SchneemannBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caglianone singled to right, Tolbert scored and Yastrzemski scored, Maile to second.2–10
- 7Kwan grounded into fielder's choice to second, Kayfus scored, Rocchio out at second.0–10
- 5Schneemann grounded into fielder's choice to second, Rocchio scored on error, Kwan out at second, Schneemann safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Garcia.0–9
- 4Jones doubled to center, Schneemann scored and Ramírez scored, Manzardo to third.0–8
- 4Manzardo reached on infield single to second, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second, Schneemann to third.0–6
- 4Schneemann doubled to center, Rocchio scored, Kwan to third.0–5
- 4Rocchio doubled to left, Kayfus scored.0–4
- 4Kayfus doubled to right, Arias scored.0–3
- 3Ramírez singled to right, Kwan scored.0–2
- 1Manzardo doubled to right, Schneemann scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 50%
- ML KC -110 / CLE -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 49.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -100
- KC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −13 | KC: Ryan Bergert: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +6 Elo | KC 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 12th of 3033–35 | Road vs home | 35–3319th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 18th of 301502 | Elo rating | 149420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–74 | 71–71 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–43 | 22–40 |
| Underdog | 45–31 | 49–31 |
| Overs–unders | 61–82 | 67–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 18–17 CLE in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 35.