Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Caminero homered to left (421 feet).7–1
- 6Valera singled to right, Kwan scored.7–0
- 6Hedges homered to left (366 feet).6–0
- 2Fry singled to left, Ramírez scored.5–0
- 2Ramírez doubled to center, Hedges scored and Kwan scored.4–0
- 2Kwan singled to center, Arias scored and Rocchio scored, Hedges to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML CLE +125 / TB -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- TB: Elo 55.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -135
- CLE +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.4 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −5 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Griffin Jax (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +39 Elo | TB 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3034–37 | Road vs home | 38–3316th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 21st of 301489 | Elo rating | 151511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–71 | 73–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 22–40 | 29–42 |
| Underdog | 46–31 | 44–25 |
| Overs–unders | 66–73 | 63–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–9 TB in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.