Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rays- Christopher MorelBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Manzardo homered to right (376 feet).2–4
- 9Ramírez homered to right (367 feet).1–4
- 6Williams hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Mangum scored, Fortes to second.0–4
- 6J. Lowe grounded into fielder's choice to second, Morel scored.0–3
- 4Williams reached on infield single to shortstop, Morel scored, Mangum to third.0–2
- 1Morel singled to left, Caminero scored, Morel to second, B. Lowe to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML CLE +145 / TB -175
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- TB: Elo 56.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -156
- CLE +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −4 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +44 Elo | TB 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3034–36 | Road vs home | 37–3317th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15026th of 30 |
| 21st of 301490 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–70 | 72–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 22–40 | 28–42 |
| Underdog | 46–30 | 44–25 |
| Overs–unders | 66–72 | 63–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–8 TB in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.