Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jonathan IndiaBatting2-3
- Noah CameronPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Fry doubled to left, Ramírez scored.0–2
- 1Ramírez homered to left center (380 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 50%
- ML KC -110 / CLE -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -100
- KC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +16 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +29 Elo | CLE 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 12th of 3033–36 | Road vs home | 36–3319th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Elo rating | 149820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–75 | 72–71 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–43 | 23–40 |
| Underdog | 45–32 | 49–31 |
| Overs–unders | 62–82 | 68–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 18–18 CLE in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 36.