Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Guardians- CJ KayfusBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kayfus homered to center (425 feet), Naylor scored.2–3
- 4Ramírez grounded out to first, Kwan scored.2–1
- 1Pasquantino homered to right center (398 feet), Yastrzemski scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML KC +120 / CLE -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -130
- KC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.5 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +5 | KC: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +20 Elo | CLE 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 12th of 3034–37 | Road vs home | 37–3419th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Elo rating | 149818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–76 | 73–72 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–43 | 24–41 |
| Underdog | 46–33 | 49–31 |
| Overs–unders | 62–84 | 68–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 19–19 CLE in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 38.