Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting1-3
- Martin PerezPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Martínez homered to right (361 feet).0–4
- 7Jones singled to center, Arias scored.0–3
- 5Hedges singled to left, Noel scored.0–2
- 4Fry homered to left (377 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML CHW +125 / CLE -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 59.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -135
- CHW +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −1 | CHW: Martin Perez: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +66 Elo | CLE 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 28th of 3025–47 | Road vs home | 38–3418th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 29th of 301443 | Elo rating | 149918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–60 | 73–73 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 24–42 |
| Underdog | 85–54 | 49–31 |
| Overs–unders | 74–73 | 68–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 15–21 CLE in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 36.