Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting2-3
- Martin PerezPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Torres homered to left center (370 feet), McKinstry scored and Jones scored.0–6
- 4Báez hit sacrifice fly to center, Ibáñez scored, McKinstry to third.0–3
- 4McKinstry doubled to left, Greene scored, Ibáñez to third.0–2
- 1Jones homered to left (374 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- DET 72%
- ML CHW +240 / DET -300
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- DET: Elo 64.3%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -255
- CHW +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.7 – 4.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +18 | CHW: Martin Perez: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +102 Elo | DET 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 71.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 3024–46 | Road vs home | 45–288th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 30 |
| 29th of 301439 | Elo rating | 151412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–59 | 67–75 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 47–55 |
| Underdog | 81–53 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders | 71–71 | 77–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 12–25 DET in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 37.