Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Parker MeadowsBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Torkelson doubled to second, Jones scored.7–5
- 7Montgomery homered to right (379 feet), Mead scored.7–4
- 6Benintendi homered to right center (399 feet).5–4
- 5Montgomery grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Fletcher scored, Mead out at second, Teel to third.4–4
- 4Pérez scored on Smith wild pitch and McKinstry scored on Smith wild pitch.3–4
- 4Pérez scored on Smith wild pitch and McKinstry scored on Smith wild pitch.3–4
- 4Robertson singled to right, Montgomery scored on error, Robertson safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Pérez.3–2
- 3Meadows homered to right (385 feet), Dingler scored.2–2
- 3Teel singled to right, Fletcher scored.2–0
- 1Montgomery singled to left, Mead scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 63%
- ML CHW +160 / DET -190
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- DET: Elo 62.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -170
- CHW +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 4.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −12 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +85 Elo | DET 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 28th of 3023–46 | Road vs home | 45–277th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 30 |
| 29th of 301437 | Elo rating | 151711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–59 | 67–74 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 47–54 |
| Underdog | 80–53 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders | 70–71 | 76–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 11–25 DET in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 36.