Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
White Sox- Kyle TeelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoendrys GomezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Gray homered to right (397 feet).5–4
- 6Benintendi singled to center, Montgomery scored.4–4
- 6Montgomery doubled to right, Sosa scored.4–3
- 5Meidroth singled to right, Baldwin scored.4–2
- 4Palacios homered to right (379 feet).4–1
- 2Simpson singled to center, Gray scored, Feduccia to second.3–1
- 2J. Lowe homered to right (396 feet), Caminero scored.2–1
- 1Teel homered to center (405 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TB -130 / CHW +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- TB: Elo 59.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.4 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −4 | TB: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Yoendrys Gomez: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +64 Elo | TB 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 12th of 3033–36 | Road vs home | 30–4227th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 14th of 301509 | Elo rating | 143929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–70 | 84–60 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–45 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 44–25 | 82–54 |
| Overs–unders | 64–79 | 72–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 9–7 CHW in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.