Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sosa singled to left, M. Taylor scored and Meidroth scored, Teel to third.6–4
- 7Robertson singled to right, Montgomery scored, Benintendi to second.4–4
- 4McKinstry hit sacrifice fly to left, Pérez scored.3–4
- 3Sosa homered to center (451 feet).3–3
- 1Pérez hit sacrifice fly to left, Greene scored.2–3
- 1Torkelson flied out to center, Torres scored on throwing error by center fielder Baldwin and Carpenter scored on error, Greene safe at third on error.2–2
- 1Benintendi doubled to center, Sosa scored and Tauchman scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML CHW +150 / DET -180
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- DET: Elo 63.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -161
- CHW +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 4.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −4 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +96 Elo | DET 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 28th of 3024–47 | Road vs home | 46–287th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 30 |
| 29th of 301437 | Elo rating | 151612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–60 | 68–75 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 48–55 |
| Underdog | 81–54 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders | 71–72 | 77–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 12–26 DET in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 38.