Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Chandler SimpsonBatting4-4
- Ian SeymourPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caminero grounded out to pitcher, Simpson scored, B. Lowe to second.1–5
- 6Teel singled to left, M. Taylor scored and Vargas scored, Baldwin to second.0–5
- 6M. Taylor singled to right, Quero scored, Vargas to third.0–3
- 1Montgomery singled to center, Meidroth scored and Mead scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TB -130 / CHW +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- TB: Elo 58.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.9 – 3.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | 0 | TB: Ian Seymour: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +59 Elo | TB 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 12th of 3034–37 | Road vs home | 31–4327th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 15th of 301509 | Elo rating | 144029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–72 | 86–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 29–47 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 44–25 | 84–54 |
| Overs–unders | 66–79 | 74–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 10–8 CHW in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.