Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RockPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Feduccia singled to center, Palacios scored.5–6
- 5Caminero homered to left (368 feet), Díaz scored.4–6
- 5Williams homered to left center (416 feet).2–6
- 3Benintendi homered to right (375 feet).1–6
- 2Sosa doubled to left, Teel scored and Tauchman scored.1–5
- 2Tauchman doubled to center, M. Taylor scored and Meidroth scored.1–3
- 2M. Taylor doubled to left, Vargas scored, Meidroth to third.1–1
- 1Díaz homered to right (356 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TB -130 / CHW +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- TB: Elo 56.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.4 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −1 | TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +43 Elo | TB 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3034–36 | Road vs home | 30–4328th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 14th of 301510 | Elo rating | 143929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–71 | 85–60 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 29–46 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 44–25 | 83–54 |
| Overs–unders | 65–79 | 73–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 10–7 CHW in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.