Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Edgar QueroBatting2-4
- Davis MartinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Guardians- CJ KayfusBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Noel homered to center (408 feet).1–3
- 2Kayfus homered to right (358 feet), Naylor scored.1–2
- 1Sosa singled to left, Meidroth scored, Quero to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 61%
- ML CHW +145 / CLE -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 63.1%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -156
- CHW +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +14 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +93 Elo | CLE 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3025–48 | Road vs home | 39–3417th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 29th of 301441 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–61 | 74–73 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 25–42 |
| Underdog | 85–55 | 49–31 |
| Overs–unders | 74–74 | 68–79 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 15–22 CLE in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 37.