Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Coby MayoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Addison BargerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kirk hit sacrifice fly to center, Loperfido scored.4–5
- 9Giménez singled to left, Clement scored, Loperfido to second.4–4
- 9Loperfido singled to right, Varsho scored, Clement to third.4–3
- 9Mayo homered to left center (403 feet).4–2
- 8Kirk singled to center, Clement scored, Springer to third.3–2
- 8Basallo doubled to center, Henderson scored, O'Neill to third.3–1
- 5Barger homered to right center (402 feet).2–1
- 1O'Neill grounded out to shortstop, Beavers scored.2–0
- 1Henderson doubled to center, Holliday scored, Beavers to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 62%
- ML BAL +150 / TOR -180
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -161
- BAL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.7 – 4.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +4 | BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +64 Elo | TOR 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 19th of 3033–40 | Road vs home | 48–252nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–73 | 82–65 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 37–42 |
| Underdog | 53–34 | 44–23 |
| Overs–unders | 63–84 | 84–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 23–14 TOR in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 37.