Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Coby MayoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Loperfido grounded into fielder's choice to second, Varsho scored, Clement out at second.2–11
- 7Clement reached on infield single to second, Heineman scored, Varsho to third.2–10
- 7Kirk reached on infield single to second, Barger scored.2–9
- 7Barger doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Springer scored and Lukes scored.2–8
- 7Cowser homered to left center (388 feet).2–5
- 6Loperfido doubled to center, Clement scored.1–5
- 5Springer homered to left center (404 feet).1–4
- 4Clement doubled to left, Varsho scored and Kirk scored.1–3
- 3Springer doubled to right, Giménez scored.1–1
- 2Mayo homered to center (412 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML BAL +165 / TOR -200
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.3%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -177
- BAL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +4 | BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +58 Elo | TOR 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 20th of 3033–41 | Road vs home | 49–252nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Elo rating | 15316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–73 | 82–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 37–43 |
| Underdog | 54–34 | 44–23 |
| Overs–unders | 64–84 | 85–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 23–15 TOR in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 38.