Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
White Sox- Curtis MeadBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Cowser homered to left center (371 feet), Mayo scored and Basallo scored.4–1
- 3J. Jackson singled to center, Basallo scored, J. Jackson to second, Holliday to third.1–1
- 1Mead singled to right, Tauchman scored, Montgomery to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML BAL -135 / CHW +115
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 56.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- CHW +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +3 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Tyler Gilbert (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +48 Elo | BAL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 20th of 3033–42 | Road vs home | 32–4328th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 21st of 301490 | Elo rating | 143929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–74 | 88–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 54–35 | 86–56 |
| Overs–unders | 65–84 | 74–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 13–3 CHW in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.