San Diego Padres at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4
- Randy VasquezPitching2.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jonah TongPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Alonso hit sacrifice fly to right, Lindor scored.1–6
- 3Nimmo homered to right center (389 feet), Lindor scored and Alonso scored.1–5
- 3J. Soto grounded out to second, Mullins scored, Lindor to third.1–2
- 3Arraez hit sacrifice fly to left, Tatis Jr. scored.1–1
- 1Alonso homered to center (445 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML SD +120 / NYM -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 47.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -130
- SD +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 5.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −19 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Jonah Tong: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +15 Elo | SD 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 14th of 3036–41 | Road vs home | 46–309th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 9th of 301526 | Elo rating | 151313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–68 | 68–84 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 38–48 | 40–67 |
| Underdog | 46–20 | 28–17 |
| Overs–unders | 67–85 | 73–79 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 9–9 NYM in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.