Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Dylan BeaversBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Mike TauchmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 4Tauchman homered to right (368 feet).3–1
- 4Beavers homered to right (398 feet), Mayo scored.3–0
- 1J. Jackson reached on infield single to shortstop, Henderson scored, O'Neill to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML BAL -125 / CHW +105
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- CHW +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +6 | BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Martin Perez: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +32 Elo | BAL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3035–42 | Road vs home | 32–4528th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Elo rating | 143628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–74 | 88–64 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–39 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 55–35 | 86–57 |
| Overs–unders | 66–85 | 75–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 15–3 CHW in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 18.