San Diego Padres at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoendrys GomezPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sosa homered to left center (407 feet).7–3
- 9Arraez singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.7–2
- 8Sheets singled to right, Merrill scored.6–2
- 6O'Hearn doubled to left, Machado scored, Sheets scored and Merrill scored.5–2
- 6Machado singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.2–2
- 3Teel doubled to right, Meidroth scored.1–2
- 2Merrill homered to right center (393 feet).1–1
- 1Vargas doubled to center, Montgomery scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 62%
- ML SD -180 / CHW +150
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- SD: Elo 59.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -161
- CHW +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Yoendrys Gomez: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +69 Elo | SD 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 20th of 3036–43 | Road vs home | 33–4628th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 9th of 301522 | Elo rating | 143628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–70 | 89–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–49 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 46–21 | 87–58 |
| Overs–unders | 67–87 | 75–79 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–1 CHW in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.