New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turang homered to center (411 feet).3–4
- 6Chisholm Jr. doubled to right, Bellinger scored.3–3
- 4Perkins singled to center, Vaughn scored and Rengifo scored, Perkins to second.2–3
- 4Mitchell hit sacrifice fly to center, Sánchez scored.2–1
- 2Jones singled to center, Caballero scored.2–0
- 1Judge homered to right (373 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML NYY +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 52.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- NYY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.9 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +6 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +17 Elo | MIL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.8 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 12–87th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149421st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301558 | Elo rating | 15483rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–16 | 22–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–14 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–20–3 | 18–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–5 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.