Texas Rangers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Brendan BeckPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8McMahon singled to center, Bellinger scored.2–9
- 7Schuemann doubled to left, Grisham scored.2–8
- 6Bellinger singled to left, Goldschmidt scored, Judge to second.2–7
- 6Judge singled to left, Escarra scored, Goldschmidt to second.2–6
- 6Escarra singled to left, Grisham scored.2–5
- 6Grisham doubled to left, Bellinger scored, McMahon scored and Rosario scored.2–4
- 5Duran grounded into fielder's choice to second, Osuna scored, Nimmo out at second.2–1
- 3Duran homered to left (374 feet).1–1
- 1Bellinger tripled to right, Goldschmidt scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML TEX +131 / NYY -158
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.3%, market 58.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -141
- TEX +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −8 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +66 Elo | NYY 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 11th of 300.0 | Margin | +2.03rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 13th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 13–63rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 149221st of 30 |
| 13th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15592nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–19 | 23–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 20–12 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 14–20–2 | 16–18–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 11–13 NYY in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.