Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting2-3
- Jack LeiterPitching6.2 IP, 5 ER, 10 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brant HurterPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vierling doubled to right, McGonigle scored and Rogers scored.1–7
- 7McGonigle singled to right, Lee scored, McGonigle to second, Rogers to third.1–5
- 7Lee singled to right, Carpenter scored.1–4
- 7Higashioka grounded out to first, Duran scored, Smith to third.1–3
- 6McGonigle singled to right, Rogers scored.0–3
- 5Torkelson homered to left center (388 feet), Greene scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML TEX +100 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- DET: Elo 49.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −23 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tyler Holton: team allows 1.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +6 Elo | TEX 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 11–31st of 30 |
| 6th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 11th of 301510 | Elo rating | 150714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–17 | 15–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 9–12 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 13–18–2 | 16–16–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 13–9 DET in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.