New York Yankees at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting3-4
- Elmer RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Haggerty singled to center, Duran scored.0–3
- 5Jung singled to left, Duran scored and Osuna scored, Nimmo to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML NYY -113 / TEX -107
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.5%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -103
- TEX +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −1 | NYY: Elmer Rodriguez (no track record yet) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +24 Elo | NYY 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3012–5 | Road vs home | 6–825th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15115th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301554 | Elo rating | 150912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–12 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–11 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 12–16–2 | 12–16–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 12–9 TEX in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 21.