New York Yankees at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9McMahon singled to right, Escarra scored.4–7
- 9Escarra doubled to right, Goldschmidt scored.3–7
- 9Goldschmidt doubled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored.2–7
- 6Judge homered to center (401 feet).1–7
- 5Walker doubled to left, Alvarez scored and Paredes scored.0–7
- 5Paredes singled to left, Correa scored, Alvarez to third.0–5
- 3Paredes homered to left (364 feet), Alvarez scored.0–4
- 1Walker homered to center (432 feet), Paredes scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYY -136 / HOU +113
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -123
- HOU +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.0 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +54 Elo | NYY 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 6.129th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.9 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3010–4 | Road vs home | 7–822nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 148029th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301554 | Elo rating | 148622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–10 | 10–18 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–9 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–14–2 | 20–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 16–6 HOU in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.