New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis GilPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting1-4
- Connelly EarlyPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Grichuk doubled to center, Bellinger scored.4–0
- 6Stanton doubled to center, Judge scored and Rosario scored.3–0
- 2Stanton homered to left (369 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML NYY +100 / BOS -121
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.1%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -110
- NYY +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 4.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +5 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Connelly Early: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +6 Elo | NYY 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.619th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 5–517th of 30 |
| 26th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301543 | Elo rating | 15159th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–10 | 7–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11–2 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 17–25 BOS in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 42.
- Oct 2BOS 0 @ NYY 4PlayoffsPicked NYY 58%Hit
- Oct 1BOS 3 @ NYY 4PlayoffsPicked NYY 64%Hit
- Sep 30BOS 3 @ NYY 1PlayoffsPicked NYY 55%Miss
- Sep 14NYY 4 @ BOS 6Picked BOS 59%Hit
- Sep 13NYY 5 @ BOS 3Picked NYY 58%Hit
- Sep 12NYY 4 @ BOS 1Picked NYY 52%Hit
- Aug 24BOS 2 @ NYY 7Picked NYY 59%Hit
- Aug 23BOS 12 @ NYY 1Picked BOS 52%Hit