Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Jahmai JonesBatting2-4
- Casey MizePitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Yoshida singled to right, Duran scored, Mayer to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML DET +109 / BOS -131
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.9%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −6 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +34 Elo | BOS 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Road vs home | 3–318th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150511th of 30 |
| 14th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15189th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–12 | 6–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9–2 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 9–10 BOS in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.