Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting2-4
- Janson JunkPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Torkelson singled to center, Greene scored.1–6
- 4Norby hit sacrifice fly to right, Hicks scored, Lopez to third.1–5
- 3Greene homered to right center (408 feet), McGonigle scored and Dingler scored.0–5
- 1Greene singled to right, Keith scored.0–2
- 1Keith doubled to left, McGonigle scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML MIA +124 / DET -149
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- DET: Elo 51.0%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -134
- MIA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.2 – 3.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −14 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +7 Elo | DET 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.016th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–11st of 30 |
| 27th of 301478 | Opponent Elo | 149519th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 149719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 6–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–4 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.