Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Greene scored on Sands wild pitch, Dingler to second on wild pitch by Sands.6–8
- 7Greene scored on Sands wild pitch, Dingler to second on wild pitch by Sands.6–8
- 7Greene reached on infield single to second, Torres scored.5–8
- 7Torres doubled to right, McGonigle scored and Báez scored.4–8
- 6Buxton scored, Martin picked off and caught stealing second.2–8
- 6Buxton scored, Martin picked off and caught stealing second.2–8
- 6Dingler singled to center, Torres scored, Carpenter to second.2–7
- 6Carpenter singled to right, Keith scored, Torres to third.1–7
- 4Keaschall singled to center, Buxton scored.0–7
- 1Lewis singled to center, Bell scored and Wallner scored.0–6
- 1Wallner doubled to right, Caratini scored, Bell to third.0–4
- 1Bell singled to left, Keaschall scored, Caratini to second.0–3
- 1Jeffers grounded out to third, Martin scored.0–2
- 1Buxton scored on Valdez wild pitch, Keaschall to second on wild pitch by Valdez, Martin to third on wild pitch by Valdez.0–1
- 1Buxton scored on Valdez wild pitch, Keaschall to second on wild pitch by Valdez, Martin to third on wild pitch by Valdez.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 58%
- ML DET -156 / MIN +129
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- DET: Elo 51.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -140
- MIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.4 – 3.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | 0 | DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +10 Elo | DET 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–6 | Road vs home | 3–213th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149420th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Elo rating | 147426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–7 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5–1 | 4–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 22–19 MIN in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 41.