Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Nick FortesBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Twins- Tristan GrayBatting1-2, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mullins singled to center, Fortes scored.4–10
- 7Gray homered to right (374 feet), Jeffers scored, Martin scored and Lewis scored.3–10
- 7Lewis walked, Bell scored, Martin to second, Jeffers to third.3–6
- 7Larnach walked, Keaschall scored, Jeffers to second, Bell to third.3–5
- 7Bell singled to center, Outman scored, Keaschall to second.3–4
- 4Gray hit sacrifice fly to right, Jeffers scored, Larnach to third.3–3
- 4Lewis grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bell scored, Larnach safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Williams, Jeffers to third.3–2
- 4Bell doubled to right, Keaschall scored.3–1
- 4Williamson doubled to left, Fraley scored.3–0
- 1Fortes doubled to left, Caminero scored and Díaz scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 50%
- ML TB -110 / MIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 50.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -100
- TB -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +1 | TB: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +6 Elo | MIN 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.316th of 30 |
| 9th of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 149420th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Elo rating | 147226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | — |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 12–7 MIN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 19.