Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting5-6, 4 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz reached on infield single to pitcher, Williamson scored, Fortes to second, Williams to third.11–7
- 9Williams hit sacrifice bunt, DeLuca scored, Williamson to second.10–7
- 8Pagés homered to left center (418 feet), Walker scored.9–7
- 8Gorman homered to right center (443 feet).9–5
- 8Mullins hit sacrifice fly to center, Díaz scored.9–4
- 8Aranda singled to center, Williams scored, Díaz to third.8–4
- 8Díaz singled to right, Williamson scored, Williams to third.7–4
- 4Walker homered to center (415 feet), Winn scored and Saggese scored.6–4
- 4Mullins doubled to right, Aranda scored.6–1
- 4Aranda doubled to right, Díaz scored.5–1
- 4Díaz doubled to left, Feduccia scored.4–1
- 3Scott II reached on infield single to second, Walker scored on throwing error by second baseman Palacios.3–1
- 2Díaz singled to right, Williams scored, Feduccia to second.3–0
- 2DeLuca scored on May wild pitch.2–0
- 2DeLuca scored on May wild pitch.2–0
- 2DeLuca doubled to left, Simpson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML TB -122 / STL +102
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- TB: Elo 49.7%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -111
- STL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.1 – 3.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −10 | TB: Steven Matz: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +2 Elo | STL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 20th of 3036–45 | Road vs home | 44–3716th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 19th of 301495 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  TB |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–81 | 76–86 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–50 | 24–48 |
| Underdog | 52–31 | 52–38 |
| Overs–unders | 75–87 | 85–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–7 STL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.