Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Lukes homered to right center (399 feet), Springer scored.2–4
- 2Clement singled to right, Varsho scored.2–2
- 2Aranda homered to right center (391 feet).2–1
- 2Caminero homered to right (367 feet).1–1
- 1Lukes singled to left, Springer scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 62%
- ML TB +155 / TOR -185
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -166
- TB +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +8 | TB: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +44 Elo | TOR 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 18th of 3036–42 | Road vs home | 51–272nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 15269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–78 | 86–73 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 29–50 | 40–49 |
| Underdog | 52–28 | 45–24 |
| Overs–unders | 74–85 | 90–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 23–13 TOR in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 36.