Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BazPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Westburg reached on infield single to shortstop, Cowser scored and Beavers scored.6–2
- 8Mangum homered to center (418 feet).6–0
- 7Caminero grounded out to third, Simpson scored.5–0
- 6Gray doubled to right, Palacios scored on fielding error by right fielder O'Neill.4–0
- 3B. Lowe homered to right (371 feet).3–0
- 2Feduccia doubled to right, Palacios scored.2–0
- 1B. Lowe doubled to right, Simpson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML TB +105 / BAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 51.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.6 – 3.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +11 Elo | BAL 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 19th of 3035–41 | Road vs home | 38–4124th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 17th of 301502 | Elo rating | 149121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–78 | 80–77 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–50 | 25–39 |
| Underdog | 50–28 | 55–38 |
| Overs–unders | 72–85 | 66–91 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 14–23 BAL in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 37.