Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Chandler SimpsonBatting1-4
- Ian SeymourPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Cowser homered to center (426 feet), Basallo scored.0–6
- 5Westburg hit sacrifice fly to center, Cowser scored, Holliday to second.0–4
- 3Henderson singled to center, Mayo scored.0–3
- 1O'Neill grounded out to shortstop, Westburg scored.0–2
- 1Henderson hit sacrifice fly to left, Holliday scored, Westburg to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 50%
- ML TB -110 / BAL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 49.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BAL -100
- TB -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −10 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +7 Elo | TB 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 16th of 3035–40 | Road vs home | 37–4124th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 17th of 301505 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–77 | 79–77 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–50 | 24–39 |
| Underdog | 50–27 | 55–38 |
| Overs–unders | 72–84 | 66–90 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 14–22 BAL in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 36.