Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-3
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rays- Chandler SimpsonBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Simpson singled to center, Williams scored.1–2
- 4Kirk hit sacrifice fly to center, Schneider scored.1–1
- 1Díaz singled to right, Simpson scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML TOR -130 / TB +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +4 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ian Seymour: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +27 Elo | TOR 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 6th of 3039–37 | Road vs home | 38–3821st of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 6th of 301536 | Elo rating | 150316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–67 | 76–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 38–44 | 29–49 |
| Underdog | 45–23 | 47–26 |
| Overs–unders | 87–64 | 69–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 13–21 TB in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 34.