Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hoerner doubled to left, Shaw scored and Castro scored.3–4
- 6Happ homered to left (356 feet).3–2
- 3J. Lowe reached on bunt single to pitcher, B. Lowe scored, Fortes to third.3–1
- 1Hoerner singled to center, Busch scored.2–1
- 1Caminero homered to left center (401 feet).2–0
- 1Díaz homered to center (433 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML TB +140 / CHC -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -149
- TB +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +4 | TB: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +43 Elo | CHC 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3035–39 | Road vs home | 45–277th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 16th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–74 | 68–80 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–48 | 44–57 |
| Underdog | 45–26 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders | 68–80 | 73–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–4 CHC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.