Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 5Olson hit sacrifice fly to center, Ozuna scored.3–2
- 5Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to right, Hoerner scored.3–1
- 4Turner doubled to left, Swanson scored.2–1
- 4Kelly homered to left (369 feet).1–1
- 3Alvarez Jr. doubled to left, Ozuna scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML CHC +140 / ATL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 51.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- CHC +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +28 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 1.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +9 Elo | ATL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 3038–35 | Road vs home | 35–3623rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 5th of 301533 | Elo rating | 149820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–79 | 69–76 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 43–56 | 36–55 |
| Underdog | 23–23 | 33–21 |
| Overs–unders | 71–74 | 69–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 7–10 ATL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.