Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brad LordPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-4
- Matthew BoydPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Lile homered to right (369 feet).2–1
- 2Kelly grounded out to third, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–1
- 1Alfaro singled to right, Abrams scored, Wood to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 69%
- ML WSH +210 / CHC -255
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 66.1%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -223
- WSH +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.4 – 5.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +1 | WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +116 Elo | CHC 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 69.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 26th of 3027–42 | Road vs home | 44–243rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 29th of 301438 | Elo rating | 15375th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–72 | 65–76 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–19 | 43–53 |
| Underdog | 64–53 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders | 74–66 | 70–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–12 CHC in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 18.