Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Happ homered to center (423 feet).5–11
- 6Hoerner homered to left center (364 feet).5–10
- 6Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to left, Happ scored.5–9
- 6García Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Lile scored.5–8
- 6Lile tripled to center, Abrams scored and Bell scored.4–8
- 4Castro hit a ground rule double, Happ scored and Crow-Armstrong scored, Hoerner to third.2–8
- 4García Jr. homered to right center (400 feet), Lile scored.2–6
- 2McGuire homered to right center (384 feet).0–6
- 1Swanson homered to center (424 feet), Hoerner scored and Castro scored.0–5
- 1Hoerner doubled to left, Suzuki scored.0–2
- 1Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to right, Happ scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 66%
- ML WSH +180 / CHC -225
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 65.6%, market 66.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -194
- WSH +194 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.5 – 6.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −3 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +112 Elo | CHC 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 63.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 66.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 26th of 3027–41 | Road vs home | 43–243rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 28th of 301440 | Elo rating | 15355th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–71 | 64–76 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–19 | 42–53 |
| Underdog | 64–52 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders | 73–66 | 69–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–11 CHC in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.