Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Braves- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Shaw singled to center, Castro scored, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored on throwing error by center fielder Harris II, Shaw to second.6–1
- 8Swanson walked, Crow-Armstrong scored, Castro to second, Hoerner to third.3–1
- 3Profar singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.2–1
- 3Crow-Armstrong singled to left, Happ scored, Suzuki to second.2–0
- 1Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to right, Busch scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 50%
- ML CHC -110 / ATL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 45.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -100
- CHC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −16 | CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +32 Elo | CHC 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 3037–35 | Road vs home | 35–3522nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 5th of 301531 | Elo rating | 150018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–79 | 69–75 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 43–56 | 36–54 |
| Underdog | 22–23 | 33–21 |
| Overs–unders | 71–73 | 69–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 6–10 ATL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.