Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Josh BellBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9House sacrificed into double play, center to first to shortstop, Lile scored, García Jr. thrown out at second.6–3
- 9Bell homered to center (372 feet), Abrams scored and Wood scored.5–3
- 9Hassell III homered to left center (376 feet).2–3
- 8Kelly homered to left (399 feet).1–3
- 5Suzuki singled to left, Hoerner scored, Happ to second.1–2
- 5House hit sacrifice fly to right, Lile scored, García Jr. to third.1–1
- 2Kelly homered to left center (384 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 63%
- ML WSH +160 / CHC -190
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 62.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -170
- WSH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.2 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +23 | −1 | WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 1.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHC: Drew Pomeranz: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +89 Elo | CHC 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 3028–42 | Road vs home | 44–254th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 28th of 301440 | Elo rating | 15355th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–72 | 65–77 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–19 | 43–54 |
| Underdog | 65–53 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders | 74–67 | 70–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–12 CHC in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 19.