Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fortes homered to left center (421 feet).5–4
- 8Caminero homered to center (423 feet).4–4
- 7Busch homered to center (388 feet).3–4
- 6Mangum singled to center, B. Lowe scored.3–3
- 6B. Lowe doubled to center, Díaz scored.2–3
- 5Palacios grounded out to second, B. Seymour scored.1–3
- 4Swanson doubled to left, Ballesteros scored and Hoerner scored.0–3
- 2Ballesteros homered to left center (391 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 50%
- ML TB -110 / CHC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 53.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -100
- TB -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −16 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +21 Elo | CHC 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 14th of 3034–39 | Road vs home | 45–265th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 16th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15355th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–74 | 68–79 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–48 | 44–56 |
| Underdog | 44–26 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders | 67–80 | 72–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–4 CHC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.