Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Joey GerberPitching2.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9B. Lowe singled to left, Simpson scored.6–5
- 8Gray singled to left, J. Lowe scored, Gray to second.6–4
- 5Loperfido homered to right (357 feet).6–3
- 4Lukes homered to right center.5–3
- 3B. Lowe homered to right center (378 feet), Simpson scored and Díaz scored.4–3
- 2Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Giménez scored, Springer to third.4–0
- 2Springer singled to left, Clement scored and Schneider scored, Giménez to second.3–0
- 1Barger singled to left, Springer scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML TOR -110 / TB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- TB: Elo 49.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- TOR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | 0 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +4 Elo | TOR 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 6th of 3038–37 | Road vs home | 38–3720th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 6th of 301535 | Elo rating | 150416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–67 | 76–74 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 38–44 | 29–48 |
| Underdog | 44–23 | 47–26 |
| Overs–unders | 86–64 | 68–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 12–21 TB in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 33.