Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Trey YesavagePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Springer singled to left, Clement scored.2–1
- 8Giménez hit sacrifice fly to left, Clement scored.1–1
- 1Díaz doubled to right, Simpson scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML TOR -125 / TB +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −19 | TOR: Trey Yesavage (no track record yet) · TB: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +30 Elo | TOR 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 7th of 3037–37 | Road vs home | 38–3620th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 6th of 301534 | Elo rating | 150515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–66 | 75–74 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 38–43 | 29–48 |
| Underdog | 44–23 | 46–26 |
| Overs–unders | 86–63 | 68–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 11–21 TB in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 32.